Rebecca Harding on Why Business Is Already Operating in an Era of Economic Warfare

Strategy Must Adapt to a New Operating Environment

According to Harding, tariffs, sanctions, export controls, technology restrictions and the fragmentation of global payment systems should not be viewed as isolated events. Together, they signal a broader structural shift in the global economy.

Governments are increasingly using economic tools to pursue strategic objectives, while trade, investment and supply chains have become closely linked to national security.

Many organisations continue to approach these developments as temporary disruptions. Harding argues that this mindset no longer reflects reality.

“There’s no normal to return to.”

Rather than waiting for stability to return, executive teams must recognise that geopolitical uncertainty has become a permanent feature of the business landscape.

The Greatest Risks May Be the Ones You Cannot See

One of Harding’s central themes was what she describes as unintentional blindness—the tendency for organisations to focus on familiar risks while overlooking emerging vulnerabilities.

She challenged leaders to think beyond conventional risk management and question the assumptions underpinning their strategies.

“The big question I always ask businesses is, where are your gorillas?”

Drawing on the well-known psychological experiment in which participants fail to notice a person in a gorilla suit while concentrating on another task, Harding argued that organisations often become so focused on operational priorities that they overlook the strategic shifts taking place around them.

She reinforced the point with the story of Berlin’s AquaDom aquarium, where a small structural crack eventually caused the collapse of the entire installation.

The lesson for leaders was clear: significant disruption rarely begins with a single dramatic event. More often, it develops through overlooked dependencies, gradual changes and assumptions that remain unchallenged.

Economic Security Is Now a Leadership Issue

Harding argued that economic security should no longer be viewed solely through the lens of governments or defence policy.

For businesses, resilience increasingly depends on understanding how geopolitics influences investment decisions, access to critical technologies, supply chains, payment systems, energy markets and the availability of strategic resources.

These factors are becoming central to long-term competitiveness.

For European organisations in particular, strengthening resilience will require closer cooperation between business and government, greater awareness of strategic dependencies and a broader understanding of how global economic power is evolving.

Leading Through Permanent Uncertainty

The organisations best positioned for the years ahead will not necessarily be those that predict every disruption correctly. Instead, they will be those that build the capability to adapt as conditions change.

Harding encouraged leaders to stop viewing uncertainty as a temporary obstacle and instead treat it as a defining characteristic of today’s business environment.

“Business is not usual, but it hasn’t been usual for a while.”

Her closing message was both practical and strategic.

“Understand that uncertainty is the new normal.”

For executive teams, the question is no longer whether geopolitical risk belongs on the strategic agenda. It is whether their organisations are prepared to compete in a world where economic security has become a source of competitive advantage.